AIRVS — The Recommendation Provenance Standard  ·  v1.0.0  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20391984

Preview · sample data. These verifications are illustrative placeholders, not finalized AIRVS records. Live verifications begin once the methodology reaches v2.0.0 final.

Verification · 2026-05-15 · Confirmed · D+90 measured

Questionable

A record, not a recommendation.

XLV — Health Care Select Sector SPDR

GPT recommended a defensive rotation into health care on slowing macro momentum and attractive relative valuation.

Cite this verification

1 · Original recommendation

provider: OpenAI GPT
captured: 2026-05-15
asset: XLV — Health Care Select Sector SPDR
hash: 0x20260515gptxlv
methodology: AIRVS v1.0.0 · license: CC BY 4.0

2 · Process score (6 axes, Pass/Fail)

Each axis is Pass or Fail, gated on evidence. The four dimensions are never summed into a single number — they combine into a verdict via a pre-published decision rule.

3 / 6 process axes passed

✓
1Data SourcePass

EVIDENCECited CMS + sector P/E (Tier 1/2).

✓
2Reasoning LogicPass

EVIDENCEDefensive-rotation logic stated.

✕
3Counter ScenarioFail

EVIDENCENo counter-scenario provided.

✕
4TimingFail

EVIDENCENo explicit entry window or horizon.

✓
5Accuracy / HallucinationPass

EVIDENCENo fabricated facts.

✕
6Causal ChainFail

EVIDENCEValuation claim not supported by the cited source.

3 · Macro / micro coherence

Does the call account for the macro and instrument-level environment?

Partial

4 · Outcome — time-series

D+30

+1.2%

D+60

+0.9%

D+90

+0.4%

D+180

—

vs S&P 500: -0.8pp · max drawdown: -2.1%

Return versus benchmark, by time pointD+30: +1.2%; D+60: +0.9%; D+90: +0.4%; Excess: -0.8ppbenchmark = 0+1.2%D+30+0.9%D+60+0.4%D+90-0.8ppExcess
Return at each time point and excess vs benchmark. Dotted line = benchmark parity.

5 · Verdict

Questionable

The verdict is produced by the evaluator's pre-published, version-locked decision rule from the four dimensions above — Confirmed · D+90 measured. It is a per-recommendation record, not a reputation score for the provider.

Loss report & right of reply

Recommenders get a 7-day pre-publication notice and one round of rebuttal, published unedited. Lost money following this opinion? AIRVS commits to a 7-day SLA on every report.

Cite this verification

APA

MC AI Labs. (2026). AIRVS Verification: OpenAI GPT on XLV — Health Care Select Sector SPDR
  (Verdict: Questionable) [Verification record]. https://www.ai-rvs.com/verifications/2026-05-15-gpt-xlv

BibTeX

@misc{airvs_2026_05_15_gpt_xlv,
  title        = {AIRVS Verification: OpenAI GPT on XLV — Health Care Select Sector SPDR},
  author       = {{MC AI Labs}},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {AIRVS Recommendation Provenance Standard},
  doi          = {10.5281/zenodo.20391984},
  url          = {https://www.ai-rvs.com/verifications/2026-05-15-gpt-xlv},
  note         = {Verdict: Questionable. A record, not a recommendation. CC BY 4.0}
}

Disclaimer

AIRVS is a record of past methodology and performance. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not a solicitation. Past results do not predict future returns.