AIRVS — The Recommendation Provenance Standard  ·  v1.0.0  ·  DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20391984

Preview · sample data. These verifications are illustrative placeholders, not finalized AIRVS records. Live verifications begin once the methodology reaches v2.0.0 final.

Verification · 2026-05-08 · Confirmed · D+90 measured

Trustworthy

A record, not a recommendation.

ITA — iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense

Gemini flagged aerospace & defense on rising global defense budgets and a multi-year order backlog.

Cite this verification

1 · Original recommendation

provider: Google Gemini
captured: 2026-05-08
asset: ITA — iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense
hash: 0x20260508geminiit
methodology: AIRVS v1.0.0 · license: CC BY 4.0

2 · Process score (6 axes, Pass/Fail)

Each axis is Pass or Fail, gated on evidence. The four dimensions are never summed into a single number — they combine into a verdict via a pre-published decision rule.

6 / 6 process axes passed

✓
1Data SourcePass

EVIDENCECited SIPRI + order-backlog filings (Tier 1).

✓
2Reasoning LogicPass

EVIDENCEBudget-cycle → backlog → revenue chain is sound.

✓
3Counter ScenarioPass

EVIDENCETwo downside cases with weighted probabilities (60/40).

✓
4TimingPass

EVIDENCEEntry window + 6-month horizon stated.

✓
5Accuracy / HallucinationPass

EVIDENCENo fabricated facts.

✓
6Causal ChainPass

EVIDENCEEvery cited source supports its claim.

3 · Macro / micro coherence

Does the call account for the macro and instrument-level environment?

Sufficient

4 · Outcome — time-series

D+30

+7.9%

D+60

+9.4%

D+90

+11.2%

D+180

—

vs S&P 500: +4.6pp · max drawdown: -1.4%

Return versus benchmark, by time pointD+30: +7.9%; D+60: +9.4%; D+90: +11.2%; Excess: +4.6ppbenchmark = 0+7.9%D+30+9.4%D+60+11.2%D+90+4.6ppExcess
Return at each time point and excess vs benchmark. Dotted line = benchmark parity.

5 · Verdict

Trustworthy

The verdict is produced by the evaluator's pre-published, version-locked decision rule from the four dimensions above — Confirmed · D+90 measured. It is a per-recommendation record, not a reputation score for the provider.

Loss report & right of reply

Recommenders get a 7-day pre-publication notice and one round of rebuttal, published unedited. Lost money following this opinion? AIRVS commits to a 7-day SLA on every report.

Cite this verification

APA

MC AI Labs. (2026). AIRVS Verification: Google Gemini on ITA — iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense
  (Verdict: Trustworthy) [Verification record]. https://www.ai-rvs.com/verifications/2026-05-08-gemini-ita

BibTeX

@misc{airvs_2026_05_08_gemini_ita,
  title        = {AIRVS Verification: Google Gemini on ITA — iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense},
  author       = {{MC AI Labs}},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {AIRVS Recommendation Provenance Standard},
  doi          = {10.5281/zenodo.20391984},
  url          = {https://www.ai-rvs.com/verifications/2026-05-08-gemini-ita},
  note         = {Verdict: Trustworthy. A record, not a recommendation. CC BY 4.0}
}

Disclaimer

AIRVS is a record of past methodology and performance. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation, and not a solicitation. Past results do not predict future returns.